Signal to Watch
Use the median trend and not one-off lows. A single cheap quote is often a low-quality itinerary, stale fare, or poor return timing.
The useful signal is sustained movement below your trailing median with acceptable layover structure.
Buy vs Hold Rule
Buy when fare is at least 10 to 15 percent below your 30-day median and total travel time is still acceptable for your energy budget.
Hold when fare drops are tied to overnight layovers that would force extra hotel nights or heavy recovery days.
Airline Mix
For this corridor, one-stop options are often the best value-quality compromise. Two-stop routes can look cheap but usually cost more in fatigue.
Record carrier and stop count in your tracker so decisions are based on comparable trip quality.